Democrats do best in urban centers, Republicans in outer suburbs and rural areas.
Further-more, partisan attachments powerfully shape political perceptions, beliefs and values, and incumbents enjoy advantages well beyond the way in which their districts are configured.
The public’s evaluation of the job George W. Bush is doing as president changed dramatically as a result of the horrific attacks of September 11 and his response in leading the country on a campaign against terrorism.
With the parties at virtual parity and the ideological gulf between them never greater, the stakes of majority control of Congress are extremely high.
Party and ideology routinely trump institutional interests and responsibilities. Regular order – the set of rules, norms and traditions designed to ensure a fair and transparent process – was the first casualty. The results: No serious deliberation. No meaningful oversight of the executive. A culture of corruption.
Second, the President’s popularity has not translated into increased support for the Republican party or for the policies and approaches on domestic policy championed by the President.
Mandates are not objective realities but subjective interpretations of elections sold successfully by the winning candidate or party.
America is an outlier in the world of democracies when it comes to the structure and conduct of elections.
Redistricting is a deeply political process, with incumbents actively seeking to minimize the risk to themselves (via bipartisan gerrymanders) or to gain additional seats for their party (via partisan gerrymanders).
In the House, Republican prospects have been buoyed by several successful rounds of redistricting, which have sharply reduced the number of competitive seats and given the Republicans a national advantage of at least a dozen seats.